ADB maintains forecast for VN’s growth at 6.9%

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The bank maintained its 2018 and 2019 economic growth estimates for Asia at 6.0% and 5.8%, respectively.

Viet Nam saw GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2018 reaching 7.0%, improving from 6.4% a year earlier, stated the report.

On the demand side, retail and wholesale trade rose by 8.5%, indicating strong domestic consumption. Investment remains moderate  at 7.7% as government capital expenditure slowed. 

The trade surplus expanded to US$6.4 billion in the first 10 months, with exports outpacing imports on rapidly expanding sales of phones, components, textiles, and agricultural products in abroad markets.

Meanwhile, the bank expects the country’s inflation rate to hit 4% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2019, exceeding the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV)’s target of 4%. 

The 2019 growth outlook for Central Asia was raised to 4.3%, from the September projection of 4.2%, the ADB said, but the forecasts for Southeast Asia and South Asia for next year were lowered to 5.1% and 7.1%, respectively.

Lower international commodity prices and central bank action to calm market volatility means inflation in developing Asia is forecast to be 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.7% in 2019, down from 2.8% previously forecast for both this year and next year, it said.

The World Bank in its semiannual Taking Stock report released on December 11 expected Viet Nam’s economy to grow at nearly 6.8% in 2018, before decelerating to 6.6% in 2019 and 6.5% in 2020 due to weaker external demand and global uncertainties.

By Vien Nhu