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CIEM upbeats about VN’s GDP growth rate at 6.76% in 2021-2023 period

VGP – The Vietnamese economy is forecast to expand 6.76% in the 2021-2023 period given breakthroughs in institutional reforms, according to the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM).

April 22, 2021 6:44 PM GMT+7

This is part of a report theme “Promoting post-pandemic economic recovery and institutional reform COVID-19: Proposals for Viet Nam” which was revealed by the CIEM in collaboration with the Australian Embassy in Viet Nam.

Noticeably, the CIEM published three economic growth senarios for Viet Nam in the next three years in case Viet Nam successfully controls the pandemic by the end of 2021.

Dr. Tran Thi Hong Minh, Director of CIEM assessed that Viet Nam is one of a few countries successfully controlling the pandemic and enjoying favorable conditions for recovery and market reopeness in a safe manner.

However, the Director underlined the necessity to build a long-term plan with a view to avoiding the risk of "exhausting" the policy space and reducing the motivation for economic institutional reform.

The CIEM proposed a roadmap of reform in the next three years.

Accordingly, in 2021, Viet Nam should effectively contain the pandemic, resolve difficulties for the business community and pursue economic institutional reform.

In 2022, economic recovery measures and economic institutional reform should be combined.

In 2023, supportive policies on economic recovery should be gradually reduced while economic institutional reform should be strengthened

Earlier, Viet Nam was forecast to lead the fastest growing ASEAN economies in 2022, according to a recent report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In its World Economic Outlook, IMF predicted Viet Nam’s 2022 economic growth at 7.2 percent, followed by the Philippines (6.5 percent), and Malaysia and Cambodia (both 6 percent).
 
Viet Nam’s economy was set to grow at 6.5 percent in 2021, higher than the global average of 6 percent, as it shrugs off the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic, the IMF said in its world economic outlook on April 7.
 
HSBC revised downward its estimate for Viet Nam’s GDP growth this year from 7 percent to 6.6 percent .

The World Bank (WB)'s latest update on East Asia and Pacific economies assessed only Viet Nam and China have followed a V-shape recovery path with output surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels.

Viet Nam's economy is expected to expand 6.6 percent this year while the rest of the region is forecast to grow by only 4.4 percent./. 

By Kim Anh